- Analysis from fund management firm VanEck suggests Bitcoin may be set for a bullish few months as multiple key indicators begin to flash bullish.
- VanEck’s analysis highlighted Bitcoin’s funding rate recently turning bullish, an indicator that has historically preceded substantial gains over 30-day to 180-day time horizons.
- The analysis also pointed to a fall in Bitcoin’s hash rate, which has also been historically tied to significant uplifts in Bitcoin’s rate of return.
Last week, Bitcoin surged to its highest price since January, hitting US$78,962 according to CoinGecko. Now, analysis from fund manager VanEck suggests sentiment may have found a local bottom and Bitcoin may see a more profitable few months as several key indicators turn bullish.
“Stepping back, we have identified two strong bullish indicators based on historical data,” two of the firm’s digital assets analysts, Patrick Bush and Matthew Sigel, wrote in a blog published April 24.
Both mining rate drawdowns and negative funding rates have been associated with strong forward BTC returns. As such, we have become increasingly bullish on bitcoin.
Patrick Bush and Matthew Sigel, VanEckThe VanEck analysts highlighted that Bitcoin’s funding rate 7-day moving average had turned negative over the past week, hitting its lowest levels since 2023 at -1.8%. Historically, a negative funding rate has been a bullish signal for Bitcoin.
“Examining instances since 2020 where 7-day bitcoin funding rates turned negative, there is a substantial uplift in average returns as well as a higher probability of positive returns across 30-day, 60-day, 90-day, and 180-day horizons,” the authors explained.
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According to Bush and Sigel, since 2020 the average 30-day return on Bitcoin has been 4.5% whereas the average 30-day return following negative funding rate periods has been 11.5%, with a “hit rate” of 77%.
They added that a disproportionately large percentage of Bitcoin’s best days since 2020, in terms of price action, have followed periods of negative funding rates.
“Negative FR days produced 19 of the top 50 180-day return periods since 2020, despite occurring only 13.6% of the time. Five of the top 10 single-day BTC returns occurred after purchasing during negative funding periods, as did 10 of the top 20.”
Bitcoin’s Hash Rate Drop Supports Bullish Setup, Says VanEck
The other key indicator highlighted in the analysis was Bitcoin’s falling hash rate, indicating less network mining activity. Bush and Sigel said Bitcoin’s hash rate now sits at 985.5 EH/s, down -7.5% from its all-time high of 1,065.7 EH/s set in late November 2025.
This puts the current hash rate’s moving average in the 16th percentile over a 30-day timeline and the 9th percentile over a 90-day timeline.
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VanEck’s analysts argue a decline in hash rate has historically been a strong indicator of positive price action, with six of the past seven hash rate drawdowns (excluding the most recent drawdowns for which there’s insufficient forward data to make conclusions) preceding substantial price growth.
Excluding the one drawdown that didn’t lead to a price increase, VanEck found that the median price gain after hash rate declines they examined has been 37.7% over 90 days and 631% over 180 days.
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