XRP holders are currently sitting on major losses as the price continues to decline from the 2025 bull run highs. These holders risk larger losses on their investments, as crypto analyst CasiTrades has warned that XRP could still see new lows.
XRP Holders Currently Seeing Major Negative Returns On Their Investments
On-chain analytics platform Santiment revealed that the average wallets that have been active on the XRP Ledger (XRPL) over the past year are down an average of 41% on their investments. Santiment noted that this is the lowest Mean Value to Realized Value (MVRV) for XRP holders since the FTX crash in November 2022.
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Santiment noted that because crypto assets are zero-sum trading games, significantly negative average returns, not just a price drop, but actual trader returns, imply that there is much lower risk than average in buying or adding to one’s XRP positions. The platform explained that this is because competing traders are already in severe ‘blood in the streets’ territory.
On-chain analytics platform Glassnode also highlighted how much XRP holders are currently underwater. In an X post, the platform noted that with price trading at $1.33, the percentage of XRP supply in profit has declined to 43.4%, the lowest level since July 2024.
Glassnode had previously noted that a large portion of the XRP supply was sitting at a loss even when the price was trading around $2.15. This signaled that the XRP market was a “top-heavy and structurally fragile market,” dominated by late buyers.
XRP Preparing For Another Leg Down
Crypto analyst CasiTrades has indicated that XRP is preparing for another leg down, which could put XRP holders in further losses. She noted that the bounce from the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement is over now and that she is watching for a wave-3 down. The analyst also revealed that the ceasefire push over the last 24 hours sent XRP perfectly into the .618 retracement, which gave the market a clean wave-2 relief rally.
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CasiTrades acknowledged that the wave-2 move for XRP knocked out one of the smaller subwave counts, but that the bigger structure hasn’t changed. She added that the real move hasn’t happened yet and that she is still expecting a wave-3 move down toward $1.09, which the analyst warned could accelerate fast.
The analyst had previously warned that XRP could drop towards $1.08, which is the macro .786 support, and then see another relief bounce before breaking lower into $0.87, which is the macro .854 support, marking the fifth wave of this bearish move down.
At the time of writing, the XRP price is trading at around $1.33, down over 3% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
Featured image from Freepik, chart from Tradingview.com
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