- Jaret Seiberg expressed growing pessimism regarding the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, giving it 33% odds of passage after a stablecoin yield compromise failed to gain industry support.
- Alex Thorn warned that failing to clear a Senate committee by April would make 2026 passage unlikely, a sentiment mirrored by Polymarket odds dropping from over 70% to 48%.
- Analysts predicted that if the bill missed the August recess and the political landscape shifted during midterms, implementation could face delays until 2029.
Investment bank TD Cowen has lowered its expectations for the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act being passed this year.
The firm’s managing director, Jaret Seiberg, says there are roughly one-in-three odds that the bill will pass the Senate after a bipartisan compromise on stablecoin yield (much of it thanks to Coinbase) failed to break the deadlock.
According to Seiberg, Coinbase opposes the limits because it wants stablecoin yield to be broadly permitted, while banks reject any form of yield-bearing structure that could let technology platforms compete with deposit accounts without facing the same rules.
He said the bill’s only realistic path forward would be for Congress to ignore objections from both Coinbase and the banking industry and pass the compromise anyway.
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Critical Deadlines
The Clarity Act cleared the US House of Representatives on July 17, 2025, in a 294-134 vote, the furthest any broad crypto market structure bill has advanced in Congress. Since then, it has remained stuck in the Senate, where disagreement over whether stablecoin holders should be allowed to earn interest has become the main obstacle.
Galaxy Digital’s Alex Thorn has identified the end of April as a critical deadline, warning that if the bill does not clear committee by then, the chances of passage in 2026 become very low.
Prediction market Polymarket has also shown weakening confidence, pricing the odds of the bill being signed into law this year at 48%, down from 72% to 85% earlier in the year.
Beyond that, the August congressional recess leaves little room for delay.
TD Cowen has already warned that if the legislation slips beyond the midterm elections and Democrats win back at least one chamber, final passage could be pushed to 2027, with implementation potentially extending to 2029.
That would leave the crypto sector operating for years more without a settled US market structure framework.
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