$110K Peak More Likely Than $76K Dip, Says Hayes

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes that current macroeconomic conditions will drive Bitcoin (BTC) higher, potentially up to US$110k (AU$175K).

In a March 24 post on X, Hayes referred to the Fed’s shift from quantitative tightening (QT) to quantitative easing (QE) for treasuries as the main points for his argument:

I bet $BTC hits $110k before it retests $76.5k. Y? The Fed is going from QT to QE for treasuries. And tariffs don’t matter cause of ‘transitory inflation.’ JAYPOW told me so.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes

He further elaborated:

What I mean is that the price is more likely to hit $110k than $76.5k next. If we hit $110k, then it’s yachtzee time and we ain’t looking back until $250k.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes

Related: “SO COOL”: Trump Promotes Memecoin, as BONK Soars and TRUMP Slides

In short, Hayes is basing his argument on the fundamental relationship between monetary policy and asset valuations. QE works by increasing the money supply through the Fed’s purchase of government bonds and other assets, which typically stimulates the economy and channels capital into risk assets like Bitcoin. 

Bitcoin Rebounds

Although recent US government tariff announcements have sparked uncertainty and led to a sell-off in risk assets, Hayes views these tariffs as temporary measures with minimal long-term impact on Bitcoin’s price.

The price of BTC is currently at US$87K (AU$138K), a modest increase of 1.7% on the daily scale and 4.6% in the weekly chart.

Moving on, CryptoQuant indicates that Bitcoin’s open interest (the total value of unsettled derivative contracts) has surged past US$32B (AU$50.9B), which coincides with Bitcoin’s recent price bounce. 

However, CryptoQuant described the rally as a “leverage-driven pump” and cautioned that the spike in open interest could heighten the risk of liquidation cascades if market volatility returns.